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Vol.9, No.1, February 2020. ISSN: 2217-8309 eISSN: 2217-8333
TEM Journal
TECHNOLOGY, EDUCATION, MANAGEMENT, INFORMATICS Association for Information Communication Technology Education and Science |
Prediction of Hydropower Ratio from Total Energy Generation in Romania
Angela Neagoe, Eliza-Isabela Tică, Bogdan Popa, Florica Popa
© 2020 Bogdan Popa, published by UIKTEN. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
Citation Information: TEM Journal. Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 402‐406, ISSN 2217-8309, DOI: 10.18421/TEM91-55, February 2020.
Received: 10 October 2019. Revised: 30 January 2020.
Abstract:
In a previous paper, it was made a statistical analysis for hydropower ratio from total energy production in Romania over the period 2006 – 2016 for monthly values, and the main characteristics for this set of observations were determined. Based on monthly recorded data and on mathematical model, this paper presents a method for the prediction of this random variable using the second order autoregressive (AR2) model. The reconstructed data are compared with recorded values for the last three years of the analyzed time series and, for the next two years, a forecast was made, whose results are compared with real values published in the annual reports of Hidroelectrica, for 2017, and the Transelectrica Website, for 2018.
Keywords –statistical analysis, time series, AR2 model, hydropower generation, confidence interval. |
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