|
Vol.6, No.2, May 2017. ISSN: 2217-8309 eISSN: 2217-8333
TEM Journal
TECHNOLOGY, EDUCATION, MANAGEMENT, INFORMATICS Association for Information Communication Technology Education and Science |
A Management of the Impacts of Economic Factors on USDTHB and EURTHB Exchange Rates by Using Bayesian Models
Channarong Chaiphat
© 2017 Channarong Chaiphat, published by UIKTEN. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
Citation Information: TEM Journal. Volume 6, Issue 2, Pages 279-285, ISSN 2217-8309, DOI: 10.18421/TEM62-13, May 2017.
Abstract:
This study aims to manage the impacts of economic factors on USDTHB and EURTHB exchange rates using monthly time series data from January 2005 to January 2015. Multiple Regression and Bayesian Model Averaging are also applied to indicate the probability of the variables in the model. The findings reveal that international reserves and interest rates have highest probability to indicate the exchange rates of the Thai baht to the U.S. dollar and to the euro in a negative relationship whereas inflation differentials between Thailand and the United States have highest probability to indicate the exchange rates of the Thai baht to the U.S. dollar in a positive relationship. Moreover, a political factor has great probability to indicate the exchange rates of the Thai baht to U.S. dollar and of the Thai baht to euro in a positive relationship. The study suggests useful policy recommendations to select a proper efficient tool to maintain stability of the Thai baht to meet expected economic goals.
Keywords – Foreign Exchange Rate, THB/USD, THB/EUR, Bayesian Model Averaging. |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |